Written by Dr. Alistair Vance | Published Q4 2024

For global platforms, macro cycle indicators are often reduced to a few high-level yield numbers. However, when trying to understand inventory finance risks, looking only at yield spreads is insufficient.
Liquidity tightening travels through commercial banking sectors unevenly. Instead of waiting for central banks to officially move interest rates, managers should monitor secondary corporate paper risk margins. These markers show early, critical shifts in regional supply hubs 90 to 120 days before larger credit market shifts occur.
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